Market Intelligence
Weekly Wool Market Commentary
Moses & Son is committed to providing our valued customers the most current information and data to empower your decision-making process. Discover our latest Australian wool market weekly update below, along with archived reports for your perusal and analysis.
2025-S20
The AWEX EMI closed on 1458c this week, up 39c at auction sales held in Australia. The initial estimate for this week’s offering of 32,867 bales was reduced by 6% before the week began as sellers withdrew wool before catalogues were finalised. This resulted in a modest 29,621-bale offering. The up swing in prices delivered an impressive 96.3% clearance.
The AUD/USD exchange rate remained relatively stable over the selling week, resulting in a 16c rise in the EMI in USD terms, now sitting at 951usc. Buying interest largely came from the Australian trading exporters, large Chinese indents, and top makers, with competition intensifying as the week progressed.
Merino Fleece
Merino fleece experienced an accumulative strengthening of the MPG ranges, rising 29–72c in the Northern region, with both selling days posting positive results. Dominant buyers were Chinese indents, large Australian trading exporters, and Chinese processors, with the top four buyers taking 55% of the offering. The best performances continued to be in the medium and broader Merino MPGs; however, the Fine and Superfine MPGs also recorded a solid performance this week. The 19 MPG now sits at the 97th percentile of its 5-year range, while the 21 MPG is at the 99th percentile.
Merino Skirtings
Merino skirtings in Sydney opened 10–20c dearer on Tuesday and saw a consolidation of those levels with smaller upward movements on Wednesday. Melbourne opened firm on Tuesday and posted a 10–30c increase on Wednesday.
Merino Cardings
Merino cardings experienced varied results across all centres, with Sydney unchanged, Melbourne +12c, and Fremantle -7c, with selection likely the cause of the variation. Cardings have long been considered an early indicator of market strength; however, with the MC sitting at the 37th percentile of its 5-year range, this indicator would raise little concern under that theory today
Crossbred Fleece
Crossbreds saw the 28–30 MPGs increase by 5–23c, while the 26 and 32 MPGs were marginally cheaper. The top four buyers accounted for 61% of the purchases, dominated by Australian trading exporters and Chinese trading exporters. The 28 MPG now sits at the 98th percentile of its 5-year band, while the 30 MPG is at the 99th percentile.
Crossbred Oddments
Crossbreds
Next Week
Next week’s national offering is expected to be 33,750 bales, with sales scheduled in Sydney and Melbourne on Tuesday and Wednesday. Once again, Fremantle will offer only on Tuesday. Market intelligence indicates improved trading, with modest volume being transacted for pre-Christmas purchasing and, in some cases, pre-Christmas arrival into Chinese destinations.~ Marty Moses
Graphs
Market Commentary
Over the past two weeks the EMI has posted a modest rise of 45c, restoring some much-needed confidence across the wool pipeline. As noted in a well-known wool market commentary this week, the past three months of market movements remain relatively normal. While market sentiment at present appears largely influenced by supply dynamics, we are entering a period when southern wool receipts normally provide more adequate volumes to weekly offerings.
Given the extended dry/drought conditions across this region for the past 10 months, I anticipate that reduced sheep numbers and the resulting impact on wool production may see bale numbers continue to fall short of expectations. In recent discussions with my market intelligence team, it appears some Chinese processors are questioning the accuracy of the recent Wool Production Forecasting reports, even though AWTA sampling figures and AWEX sale analysis continues to reflect a very accurate account of the forecast.